by Bayan Almasri 

From his modest home in the Jordanian city of Mafraq, Youssef Al-Allawi scrolls through photos of his destroyed house and workshop in the Khalidiya district of Homs. His eyes betray a sorrow he has spent years trying to suppress. Youssef fled to a neighboring country in search of safety and work, eventually managing to secure a simple life for himself and his family. Yet despite his deep longing for home, the idea of returning has become almost impossible.

Today, amid the latest political shifts in Syria, Youssef asks: “Where would I return to? There is no house, no work, and no guarantee I could live with dignity. Everything I built over twenty years vanished in minute memories too harsh to forget.”

Youssef is far from alone. According to open-source data, digital surveys, and interviews conducted by the report’s author, thousands of Syrian refugees in Jordan share his view. Their reluctance to return is driven largely by deteriorating security conditions and economic instability.

Security Concerns Overshadow Aspirations of Return

Security fears and personal considerations play a decisive role in the decision not to return. Many refugees are concerned about arrest, forced conscription, or the absence of legal guarantees that would protect them upon re-entry. Although some families express a desire to return “one day,” their decision hinges on the restoration of safety and credible assurances of a secure and livable environment.

A report by the UNHCR notes that registered returns have been documented since 8 December 2024, though figures vary depending on the reference period. Projections indicate that the number of registered refugees residing in Jordan will continue to decline, potentially reaching around 415,000 by the end of 2025 and dropping to approximately 290,000 by late 2026.

Yet despite this gradual decrease, UNHCR data shows that refugee living conditions in Jordan remain extremely fragile. Nearly 67% live below the poverty line, and nine out of ten have resorted to borrowing money to cover basic needs. Such economic pressures undermine families’ ability to consider return—going back without housing or employment would mean forfeiting what resilience they have managed to build over years of displacement.

Economic Realities Weigh Heavily on Return Decisions

Since 2014, Fadia Abdullah has been living in Jordan, working in a sewing workshop in Amman to support her family of six. “I constantly miss Syria, and I long to see my sisters again,” she says. “But the lack of job opportunities in rural Damascus prevents me from returning. Relatives have advised me not to go back now due to scarce employment and weak educational conditions. These are major obstacles.”

A survey of 210 families conducted for this report found that 86% reject returning at present, 10% remain undecided, and only 4% expressed readiness to return now.

Destroyed Infrastructure Presents a Material Barrier.

The destruction of infrastructure in Syria remains a fundamental obstacle to widespread return. The World Bank estimates the cost of rebuilding damaged physical assets at between USD 140– 345 billion, with a conservative estimate of USD 216 billion. These figures include housing, facilities, and core infrastructure. Direct material damage accounts for roughly USD 108 billion in losses, with Aleppo and Rural Damascus among the most affected regions.

Such devastation leaves many families with no homes or functioning public services to return to, depriving them of the conditions needed for a dignified life.

Basic Services Still Largely Absent in Areas of Return

After receiving permission to visit his home in Daraa, Saber Al-Jassim returned to Jordan with a stark conclusion: going back is not feasible for at least three more years. He cited the absence of basic services—communications, electricity, and healthcare—compared to what his family has grown accustomed to in Jordan.

Similar views were echoed by 38 Syrian refugees interviewed for this report, who said that the lack of healthcare and education remains one of the central reasons preventing return. They noted that the restoration of these services could eventually create more favorable conditions. 

Legal and Documentation Barriers Add Further Complications

Challenges related to civil documents and property ownership also hinder return. Many refugees struggle to authenticate birth certificates or prove ownership of their homes difficulties that add practical and legal risks to any attempt to resettle in Syria.

Humanitarian Agencies Stress the Need for Guarantees

A communications officer at the Norwegian Refugee Council told the report’s author: “The decision to return is deeply complex and personal, influenced by factors on both sides of the border. It must be free and well-informed. Yet rising living costs, restrictions on access to work, and shrinking humanitarian aid make safe and voluntary return increasingly difficult for many Syrian refugees.” He added that Jordan has been a generous host for more than 14 years.

“International donors must continue supporting the Kingdom so refugees are not forced to choose between deepening poverty and unsafe return. After more than a decade in exile, returning is far more than a bus trip; it requires supportive policies and investments that enable refugees to prepare for a safe and sustainable return.”

This position aligns with field reports showing that although many refugees retain hope of returning someday, that hope does not translate into concrete action without security, jobs, and essential services.

Declining Aid Leaves Families Facing Difficult Choices

Humanitarian assistance plays a significant role in whether refugees stay or consider returning. Aid is not a luxury it is a lifeline preventing families from collapsing into extreme hardship. When cash, food, or health support declines, families face mounting debts and reduced access to basic necessities. As their coping capacity erodes, staying in Jordan becomes increasingly costly.

With shrinking assistance, some refugees find themselves confronting a harsh choice: remain in Jordan in growing poverty, or risk returning to Syria where job opportunities are scarce and infrastructure remains unprepared for large-scale reintegration.

UNHCR: Conditions Still Not Conducive for Large-Scale Return

A UNHCR spokesperson in Jordan told the report’s author that safe and dignified return requires meeting several core conditions: restoring essential infrastructure such as housing, water, electricity, and schools; ensuring access to vital services like healthcare and education; and enabling refugees to secure sustainable livelihoods upon return.

He stressed the need for legal guarantees to protect returnees’ rights, including reclaiming property or receiving compensation an essential prerequisite for any safe return.

UNHCR assessments continue to judge security and service conditions in areas of return as inadequate for large-scale repatriation. Basic services and infrastructure remain insufficient to meet returnees’ needs, who face pronounced challenges in securing housing, healthcare, and education, as well as limited access to employment.

According to the spokesperson, the primary reasons refugees cite for not returning include the absence of housing and infrastructure, limited job opportunities, lack of basic services, and security concerns in some areas.

Return Remains a Distant Prospect

In light of these realities, the continuation of humanitarian assistance, expansion of legal access to work, reduction of administrative barriers, and investment in rebuilding Syria are all essential to creating conditions that would allow refugees to make a voluntary and dignified return.

Without such measures, returning will remain a difficult choice shaped by nostalgia but constrained by economic hardship and security concerns. Many Syrian refugees in Jordan are likely to remain until better conditions emerge—or until they are forced to choose between unstable living in Jordan and a risky return to Syria.

For now, amid ongoing economic and security challenges and the absence of basic services, returning remains uncertain and fraught with obstacles. Jordan continues to serve as a temporary sanctuary for many Syrian refugees, even as longing for home persists without a realistic path to fulfillment.